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NEW DELHI: India will have above-average temperatures in March across most regions following a warmer February, the weather office forecast on Friday, conditions that could threaten winter-sown crops such as wheat, chickpea and rapeseed.
Both maximum and minimum temperatures will be above average in most areas in March, D.S. Pai, a senior scientist at the state-run India Meteorological Department, told reporters.
India, the world’s second largest wheat producer, is counting on a bumper harvest in 2025 to avoid expensive imports, after three consecutive years of poor crop yields but higher temperatures could cut yields for the fourth straight year, trim overall wheat production and force authorities to lower or remove the 40% import tax to facilitate overseas shipments by private traders to tide over shortages.
Reuters reported on Thursday that India was poised to enter the summer season with one of the warmest Marches on record, and above-average temperatures through most of the month threaten to cut yields of the maturing wheat crop.
Heatwave days are expected over most parts of central regions, some adjoining northern areas of southern India and parts of northeastern and eastern regions, Pai said.
Indian farmers primarily grow wheat in the northern states of Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Haryana and the central state of Madhya Pradesh.
India was forced to ban wheat exports in 2022 after a sharp rise in temperatures in February and March that year shriveled the crop.
Indian wheat prices jumped to a record high this month due to dwindling supplies.
India is poised to enter the summer season with one of the warmest March months on record, and above-average temperatures throughout most of the month threaten to cut yields of the maturing wheat crop, two weather bureau sources said.
India, the world’s second-biggest wheat producer, is counting on a bumper harvest in 2025 to avoid costly imports, after three consecutive years of poor crop yields since 2022.
Higher temperatures could reduce yields for the fourth straight year, trimming overall production and forcing authorities to lower or remove the 40% import tax to facilitate overseas shipments to tide over shortages.
“March is going to be unusually hot this year. Both the maximum and minimum temperatures will remain above normal for most of the month,” said a senior official at the India Meteorological Department (IMD), who did not wish to be identified ahead of the official announcement from the weather office.
The IMD is expected to release its forecast for March temperatures on Friday.
Day temperatures are expected to start rising from the second week of March, and by the end of the month, maximum temperatures could exceed 40 degrees Celsius (104°F) in many states, the official said.
After a sharp rise in temperatures in February and March shriveled the wheat crop, India was forced to ban exports of the staple in 2022.
India’s wheat-growing states in the central and northern belts are likely to see a sudden jump in maximum temperatures from the second week of March, with temperatures potentially rising up to 6 degrees Celsius above average, said the second IMD official. “March is not going to be conducive for wheat, chickpea and rapeseed. Crops could experience heat stress,” he said.
Winter crops, such as wheat, rapeseed, and chickpeas, are planted from October to December and require cold weather conditions throughout their growth cycle for optimal yields.
